A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
